Russia’s pandemic/political update: facing challenges… having created them

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 01 Dec 2021 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

After a rather mild weekly lockdown in early November, Russia’s daily incidence rate declined gradually from over 40K to 32-33K on November 30 and December 1. Even though the daily death toll remains high, it started to subside as well. Russia’s numbers do not look too high compared to many European countries (especially adjusted for the size of the population), but the virus keeps spreading across Russia’s regions, albeit quite unevenly. Both the death toll and the incidence rate are lower in more vaccinated regions. As the vaccination gradually continues, over 60% of the country’s adult population could become fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. Even though more people are getting vaccinated, the process remains rather slow – too many Russians remain self-confident, either trusting the strength of their immune system or simply disregarding the danger of catching the virus.

In the geopolitical arena, Russia has become a pariah considering its relations with the West. There is no chance that the situation may change, even in the long-term. It may seem that Russia has nothing else to do but exchange barbs with the West, try to disunite the EU and NATO, and undermine democracy in the US, UK, and elsewhere as some experts and politicians insist. The reality, though, is different, as Russia has more acute challenges with other neighboring countries. It appears that Russia’s influence in the FSU, in the former Asian republics of the Soviet Union in particular, has been diminishing as the country’s prolonged period of slow economic growth makes it a less appealing partner for its neighbors. Russia is also losing its cultural influence as it has little to offer its neighbors – be it new literature, movies, lifestyle, TV, or whatever. Internally, Russia has multiple challenges as well. Therefore, the country will first need to pay greater attention to domestic issues and relations with its closest neighbors.

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