Russia’s pandemic/political update: The point of no return is reached

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 08 Mar 2022 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

It looks as though the pandemic has become less of an issue as Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell to below 70K on March 8 from around 200K a month before. People almost stopped getting vaccinated, and the relative unimportance of pandemic-related issues became even more vivid for ordinary people as the world changed in less than two weeks not only for Ukraine but also for Russia. The vast majority of Russians, though, will start to feel the real impact of the military operation in Ukraine a bit later.

The current situation will hit mostly the middle class, which will be forced to considerably change its lifestyle, as many of its representatives lost the value of their savings and face many other restrictions from sanctions. If part of Russia’s pro-Western middle class starts protesting, this uprising can be easily suppressed. It can also happen that having tried to defend democratic values in Russia in various ways in the past, and having now faced targeted pressure and restrictions from Western sanctions, some of the middle class may become more loyal to Russia’s ruling elite. Russian society may become much more anti-Western.

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