Russia’s political and pandemic update: Russia’s alienation to deepen amid Navalny saga

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 04 Sep 2020 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia exceeded 1 mln people, while Russian economic performance has improved in recent months, Russians became a bit more optimistic in August, even though the daily numbers of newly infected people stopped declining in mid-August and fluctuated below 5K, but exceeded this benchmark on September 4.

It looks as though people have somehow gotten used to the new environment and learned how to co-exist with the new virus. According to the Levada Center's most recent poll, 51% of Russians consider that things have turned more or less back to a kind of normal and are going in the right direction, while 42% think the country is moving in the wrong direction, and 7% remain undecided. In June and July, the former figure was much lower. Even though society remains divided, the approval ratings of the President, the Prime Minister, and the government, in general, increased last month.

Interestingly, the popularity of the President, Prime Minister, and the authorities in general recovered on the back of developments in Belarus, the ongoing protests in the Khabarovsk region, where people continue to support the governor (who had been accused of several crimes, detained and transported to Moscow), and the Navalny case. It is almost certain that the Navalny case, which raises more questions than answers, will further alienate Russia from the West, and particularly from the European Union. Irrespective of whether or not new sanctions are imposed, more countries will prefer to continue “social distancing” with Russia.

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