Russia’s political/pandemic update: Russia and the West − “social distancing” to continue
Despite mild restrictions and widespread non-compliance with safety protocols by ordinary Russians, in April and early May Russia’s pandemic situation remained generally unchanged, showing neither deterioration nor improvement. The officially reported daily number of newly infected people fluctuated mostly below 9K, albeit exceeding this level on some rare occasions. The recovery ratio also remained unchanged, so that the total number of currently infected people was also relatively stable. As opposed to Europeans, Russians were still skeptical about vaccinations, so the country remained unaffected by the waves of investor optimism or skepticism about the pace of vaccination that influenced other countries. As of May 3, only 5.2% of Russians were fully vaccinated, and 8.5% had at least one shot.
What is also different in Russia is that there are no protests against safety protocols and restrictive measures – people simply ignore the former, while the latter are mild and offer some degree of flexibility. Therefore, economic activity is not very much affected by the restrictions, which enables the economy to operate without major government stimulus. Overall, it looks as though the authorities are tolerant of ordinary people violating safety protocols as there are too many violators, but are very tough on those who pretend to get involved in politics.
The split between Russia and the West can only deepen – be it due to Russia’s treatment of local opposition figures or some suspected Russian activity, such as various kinds of meddling in other countries' affairs, which the Russian authorities consistently deny. One can expect more tit-for-tat actions, such as the most recent exchange of expulsions of diplomats from the Czech Republic and from Russia (and other EU countries that expressed their solidarity with the Czechs).
Regardless of such developments, the majority of Russians still think that the country is moving in the right direction (49% against 41% who take the opposite view). The approval ratings of the most recognizable political figures have not changed much in recent weeks.
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