Russian GDP grew 1.3% in 2013

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 31 Jan 2014 by Marcel Salikhov

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Rosstat published today preliminary estimates of economic growth for 2013. GDP grew 1.3% compared to 3.4% in 2012 in line with our previous forecasts and slightly lower than last MED estimates (1.4%). Main sectors to support economic growth in 2013 were trade ( +3.9 %) and agriculture (+6.2%) . On the demand side growth was driven by higher private consumption compensated by decline in investments and a negative contribution of net exports. The main driver of economic growth in 2013 was domestic demand , supported by rising real incomes . According to Rosstat , the average wage rose to 29.9 th RUB/month ( average per year) , an increase in real terms of 5.2%. Real disposable income growth was 3.3 %. Revenue growth was transformed into increase of retail trade turnover (+ 3.9%) and services (+2.1%). Rising incomes supported to some extend investment activity. Housing grew by 5.5 % and reached 69.4 million sq m. But overall investments in fixed assets in 2013 fell by 0.3 %. Decline in investment activity was due mainly to falling volumes of new construction ( construction work fell by 1.5 % y/y ) , while investment in the purchase of machinery and equipment, by our estimates , increased by 1.1%. Decline in construction work was due to the reduction of the investment program of OAO " Gazprom " ( -12% y / y, to 782.1 billion rubles.) , lower capital investments of JSC "Russian Railways" (completion of preparations for the Olympics ) and power companies (objects built within DPM mechanism) . However , excluding the gas industry and infrastructure sector , investment growth was 0.9 % y/y. In 2014 , as expected , investment companies infrastructure sector will continue to dec...