Russian macro: Early 2024 economic trends remain generally unchanged but hint at deceleration
Rosstat recently published the economic statistics for January, and the numbers confirmed that trends remain unchanged in general. For instance, the aggregate output in the basic sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade) grew by 5.4% y-o-y last month, which was on par with the y-o-y growth in November and December 2023 (5.2% and 5.5% y-o-y). This indicator confirms that the economy remained in decent shape, and that y-o-y GDP growth in 1Q24 could be close to that of 4Q23. In other words, January's statistics confirm that the annual GDP reading should not be too bad in 2024. If no shocks occur this year, then industry will continue growing at a pace similar to that of last year. However, some other key sectors of the economy may decelerate as consumer credit growth naturally decelerates as borrowing costs have increased. Slowing consumer credit will trim sales of durable goods, while moderation of mortgages will likely trip up housing construction growth.
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