Russian risk and domestic drama
All the diplomatic moves around tensions between Russia and Ukraine reaffirm our initial view that Vladimir Putin is just bargaining for concessions on the global level. Moscow is looking to increase its importance, but it’s highly improbable that the Russian president is prepared to become the new #1 World Villain to get there. All of Moscow’s previous military interventions had at least some nominal quasi-legitimate cover, such as “enforcing peace,” or “returning to stability.”
None of that can be applied to the situation with Ukraine, especially since the United States started its own “preventive” information attack to wake up the EU, and to explicitly warn of a potential military operation in Ukraine without mincing words. For Putin to launch an offensive under the spotlight of world media means becoming the new Bin Laden, Saddam Hussein or even Adolf Hitler.
The only excuse for him to use his accumulated military forces might be a civil confrontation in Ukraine like the Revolution of Dignity or an actual coup d’état. In that situation, “Russian peacekeepers” entering Ukraine would not look to the world like a crime. But Ukrainian society is not about to start a new revolution, even if many Ukrainians are deeply unhappy with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. What’s more worrisome for Moscow are polls reporting that more than 50% of Ukrainians are prepared for active resistance if Russia does launch an offensive: 33.3% say they are ready for armed resistance, and another 21.7% are prepared for civil resistance. This does not bode well for Moscow to start military action.
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