Russian roulette once again
For many, the “cross-death” option became necessary after months of political battle between the executive and legislative branches and allows Ecuadorians to choose their political destiny once again. But somehow, for those who a few weeks ago were proposing it in Congress, it is an illegal dictatorial measure. However, the Constitutional Court dismissed six demands of unconstitutionality presented against Executive Decree 148 issued on the night of May 17.
Ecuadorians will go to the polls in approximately 90 days for the first round, in which the presidential outcome will most likely remain undecided as an expected array of candidates will force a second round, replicating the polarization evident in 2020. However, the Correistas stand stronger than they did three years ago.
In the meantime, President Guillermo Lasso will govern through executive decrees that must be approved by the Constitutional Court. The first decree, which raises tax exemptions for about 600,000 families at a cost of $200 million to the fiscal budget, was already sent for approval. The second decree relates to the creation of free trade and economic development zones. Lasso’s prerogatives during this period are limited by constitutional rights, so executive decrees to reform the IESS or the labor sector have low probabilities of being approved if they are issued.
The Correistas have some clear candidates for the period 2023-2025, but they need to choose well if they want to build a good platform for further victories in 2025. We must also be aware of Rafael Correa’s insatiable ambition to come back. The Correistas have a majority in the newly appointed Council of Citizenship Participation, which will undoubtedly work towards eliminating any legal impediment to Correa’s participation in the elections of 2025.
On the side of the opposition to Correa and his allies, there are no clear names, except for Fernando Villavicencio, a long-time political activist and member of the legislative crime control commission. He has no party behind him, but he has expressed his intention to run in these elections. On the other hand, in an international interview with The Washington Post, President Lasso denied his intention to run for re-election, but apparently, he has not discarded it completely.
The NFPS has switched from a surplus of around $800 million in the first two months of 2022 to a deficit of $560 million in the same period this year. The General Budget followed a similar trend, falling from a surplus of $855 million between January-April 2022 to a deficit of $500 million this year. So, unless Lasso’s government raises financing not only for the next six months but also for full-year 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the newly elected government will face a tough fiscal situation amidst increasing political uncertainty.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report