SA Election Monitor 1: National elections fever is rising—and sharply so

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 27 Mar 2024 by Iraj Abedian

South Africa's 2024 elections are expected to be the first of its truly democratic process. This is because since 1994, and the dawn of the new constitutional democratic order, the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) meant that the outcomes of the national elections were highly predictable insofar as the next government was concerned. The only unknown was the statistical outcome. More interesting were the statistical results for the opposition parties to gauge their level of support and trends in particular.

However, in 2024 the socio-political and the national electoral dynamics are vastly different. For one, the ANC has become a fragile shadow of its historic self. A blend of deep and widespread corruption orchestrated by the Party’s leadership over the past two decades has shattered the nation’s trust in the Party despite its historic role in fighting the Apartheid regime. To exacerbate the problem, the in-fighting and fractures within the Party have caused incalculable damage to the organizational integrity and the operational efficacy of the Party’s machinery. Furthermore, over the past three months a new factor has entered the national electoral dynamics. Former President Zuma and his trusted supporters have registered a new party called uMkonto weSizwe Party, or the MK Party, which is changing the reality and the dynamics of the SA 2024 elections.

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