SAUDI: MBS’s Gulf-wide tour signals renewed confidence at a time of major foreign policy shifts
MBS arrived in Oman today on the first leg of a 5-country Gulf tour, his first significant foreign trip in two years. It comes ahead of Saudi Arabia's hosting of the annual Gulf summit and could result in progress in both GCC relations and also on wider regional issues such as Lebanon, Iran and Turkey. Above all, the trip demonstrates MBS's confidence in his control of the Saudi political arena, three years after this was shaken by the fallout from the murder of Jamal Khashoggi; it comes after he received some Western rehabilitation from President Macron's visit.
MBS likes bold actions, for good or ill, and this grand tour is particularly significant because for the last two years he has largely resided in Neom, which is envisaged as a futuristic city but is currently just a remote (and hence secure) desert compound in based in the Kingdom’s northwestern corner. He has only left Saudi Arabia once since the start of the pandemic, when he visited Egypt’s president in June. However, that was in Sharm El-Sheikh, which is just a few miles from Neom on the other side of the Gulf of Aqaba. In October, he had been expected to return to the international stage at the G20 in Italy and COP26 in Glasgow, but was a last-minute no show to both events, presumably because of a mix of domestic concerns and indications that he would get a very public shunning from Biden and other Western leaders, still upset about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
However, times are a-changing, for MBS and the region. The visit to Riyadh on Saturday by President Macron was a significant moment, as he was the first Western leader to meet with MBS since Khashoggi, serving as a partial rehabilitation in relations with the West. The meeting was more than symbolic because MBS has it in his power to deliver a valuable result for France by resolving the current Gulf rift with Lebanon. There is a face-saving path forward, following the resignation last Friday of George Kordahi, the Lebanese information minister whose comments about the Lebanon war sparked the crisis. This will certainly be on the agenda during MBS’s regional tour, with a restoration of diplomatic relations with Lebanon likely at or before the GCC summit.
Iran will be another key agenda item at a critical time when nuclear talks with the US have finally restarted and may be nearing a crunch moment because Iran has made major advancements in its nuclear enrichment that could catalyze action if there is no deal soon. Turkey will also be an item for discussion.
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