SAUDI: Q1 fiscal outturn shows some signs of spending restraint despite the oil surge

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 May 2022 by Justin Alexander

MoF published its Q1 fiscal outturn alongside Aramco’s earnings report. The overall surplus of SR57.5bn ($15.3bn, 6.4% of budgeted GDP) is by far the strongest since the quarterly series began in 2016 and sets the basis for a strong full-year surplus. Although expenditure is generally seasonally skewed more to the later part of the year (in the last five years, on average only 20% of full-year expenditure was recorded in Q1), rising oil production and prices are also expected to boost revenue for the full year. As a result, recent forecasts for the full-year surplus from the IMF (5.5% of GDP), Fitch (6.7%) and the World Bank (9.1%) all look plausible. This report breaks down trends in each of the published lines of revenue and expenditure.

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