SAUDI: Update on Abqaiq/Khurais attacks

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 15 Sep 2019 by Justin Alexander and Rory Fyfe

Brent oil opened up about $8 in early trading in Asia, one of the sharpest every daily spikes. It now looks like only about a third of the lost 5.7m b/d will come back online by end-Monday. The rest will take weeks. We estimate that there is about another 1.65m b/d in spare capacity at other Saudi field, plus another 0.5m b/d in the mothballed Saudi/Kuwaiti Divided Zone. Ramp up lagtimes will vary considerably. There is every reason to expect more attacks on Saudi's vast and poorly protected network of oil infrastructure. Questions remain about how the attack was implemented and by whom. Trump has threatened a response. We think it is very unlikely that the attacks came directly from Iran, so any counterstrikes would likely target militias in Yemen and Iraq.

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