Schrödinger’s Turkey
The politics section starts with the bold assertion that Turkey is no longer Erdogan’s country, which means that a new set of tools are required to analyze its politics and the economy, as Erdogan’s power on the state and sway over the voters, eclipse. We present evidence from polls seconding this assertion.
The administration is also facing a rejuvenated and united opposition, which smells victory, or a wounded predator, limping away to safety, rather than the hunter that it was before. DEVA and Gelecek Parties are formally joining the opposition Nation Alliance, which is soon to unveil a formal proposal for a return to the parliamentary system. CHP leader Kilicdaroglu already declared the first acts of his regime. The entire opposition is now united in its demand for early elections.
As Covid-19 refuses to go away completely and a stronger opposition steals its voter base, the Erdogan administration is looking perplexed and divided. New scandals emerge by the day, such as a runaway Mafia don accusing AKP members of crimes, shaking up the party. Several factions may be competing for influence or even the privilege to appoint Erdogan’s successor, which lead us to predict a chaotic summer.
Turkey’s 2021 diplomatic initiative of normalizing relations with Israel and Arab nations died along with hundreds of innocent Palestinians in the latest round of clashes.
Growth in industrial production stayed in positive territory in March, but there is a momentum loss, which should be more visible, we maintain, from April onward.
There was a lot of job growth in the industrial sector in March, which helped the unemployment rate stay broadly unchanged from February. Some features of the data are puzzling, but one explanation for the strong growth in industry jobs is that, after several months of hesitancy, the sector might have decided to start hiring again. Assuming the cycle will turn soon, job growth in industry is also unlikely to continue, however.
The current account deficit started narrowing in 12-month rolling terms, but we have some ways to go before monthly figures turn to a sizable surplus, which is necessary to make the BOP add up.
Cosmo points to Eid al Fitr weakness of the TL, predicting that it is more likely to get worse, as spring turns to summer.
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