Season’s greetings from Rosstat: as the revised numbers suggest 2020 GDP contraction was not as deep as reported earlier, the 2021 dynamics will look better as well

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 30 Dec 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat just reported that the 2020 GDP was higher in nominal terms, and contraction in real terms was not as significant as reported earlier - the new figure is 2.7% instead of 3.0%. Rosstat also revised up Russia’s GDP 2019 growth to 2.2% (from 2.0% reported earlier). Even though making such revisions is the usual practice, the latest revisions are too significant to be ignored. In addition to this brief, a more detailed report on this matter will be published in January as time is needed to digest the information. At a glance, it now looks that the 2021 growth could look stronger as Rosstat’s revision affected the 4Q20 numbers while y-o-y growth in the previous quarters of last year remained unchanged. According to the revised data, the 4Q20 GDP contracted by 1.8% instead of the previously reported 2.5%. The higher base, namely the last quarter of 2020, this year’s numbers should be affected as well.Another conclusion that can be derived from the new numbers is that various speculation about Russia’s low potential growth (a couple of years ago, it was assumed to be around 1% or so) made little sense as the numbers have been revised up several times and quite significantly. The initially reported 2019 GDP growth of 1.3% is now much higher. One cannot rule out that the 2021 GDP numbers will be also revised quite significantly in the future.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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