Seething politics, shaky currency

TURKEY - Report 15 May 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The Erdogan administration promised fairly large fiscal stimulus by July in the form of raising civil service pay and pensions. These may be signals for surprise elections in autumn, though the politics author is not yet willing to subscribe to the scenario. At the end, the fate of the shaky currency peg and AKP’s standing in the polls may settle the question.

The sentencing of CHP Istanbul party boss Ms. Canan Kaftancioglu is the harbinger of a new round of purges against the opposition. Istanbul’s popular mayor Imamoglu may be the next target, we fear. We doubt half-hearted attempts at intimidation will affect the election outcome, however.

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