Politics: Significance and implications of the second mass civil society mobilization
A new potential force is entering the electoral panorama in Mexico and it might be a game changer. On Sunday, February 25 an estimated 1.2 million citizens took to the streets in 100 cities throughout the country in defense of the autonomy and ongoing autonomous functioning of the National Electoral Institute and against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s electoral reform. The demonstration came on the heels of a previous massive demonstration in November.
The huge numbers came in response to a call by civil society organizations, which feel that nothing less than the country’s democratic future is at stake. If these demonstrations are the tip of an iceberg (even if they are middle class in composition), and it is possible to translate this discontent into votes for the opposition, this could signal a defeat for Morena in the 2024 presidential and legislative elections.
But this might be easier said than done. There are two formidable obstacles in addition to AMLO’s continued high polling numbers, particularly among lower income voters. First there is the inconvenient state of the country’s opposition parties, which have weak and discredited leaders and no credible alternative program. The identification of former Minister of Public Security Genaro García Luna, recently convicted on corruption and drug trafficking charges in a New York Court, with previous PAN administrations may have intensified voter negativity toward the now-opposition political parties. The second problem is how the opposition will select its presidential standard bearer. If it is done as in the past, through deals cut between the top party leaders, this could undercut civil society support for the eventual nominee. If the PAN and PRI were to accept transparent primary elections open to all, it could breathe new life into the opposition.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report