Simian Flu

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 08 Feb 2016 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

The Year of the Monkey finds the world in poor spirits, one eye monitoring the vital signs of its weaker members, the other eye scanning for symptoms of compromised immune systems elsewhere. While the Philippines is not resistant to the malady’s spread, the economy has internal sources of growth to keep it going.However, the quality of that growth depends on what happens 100 days from now, when the nation chooses its next President. While our central scenario reflects belief in an orderly political transition, we are mindful that election outcomes can alter perceptions quickly, for worse if contested, for better if the next President wins a clear mandate that builds trust and confidence and promotes investments.

We have rounded down our 2016 forecast to 6% mainly in consideration of the many external and internal political uncertainties that urge caution over optimism.

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