Slumping Oil and Public Finance

MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2014 by Mauricio Gonzalez and Ernesto Cervera
Executive Summary A series of recent economic indicators suggested a degree of activity during the third quarter shy of what most analysts had been projecting, albeit a firmer level than we witnessed early in the year. Median market estimates of GDP growth for full-year 2014 slipped to 2.3% in Banco de México’s most recent monthly survey of private sector analysts, which was conducted in late October; that average estimate is two basis points lower than analysts had projected in September. Moreover, economists raised their inflation estimate to 4.0% from the 3.8% level of September, at the ...

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