Soccer – our hope of last resort
The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurred in one of Ecuador’s penitentiaries. Since February 2021 there have been 11 massacres, with 412 inmates killed.
These massacres, led by inmates linked to organized crime, are an ongoing attack on the stability of the government and the state. However, they are not the sole responsibility of the current government. The size of the penitentiaries, which exceeds the recommended global standards, were built during the government of Correa. The lack of resources, which do not guarantee adequate infrastructure, and the contamination of jail security officers and some members of the police force by organized crime all make it very difficult to control and/or eliminate this problem.
President Lasso sent the Constitutional Court, as a proposed question for the referendum, one to allow the collaboration of the Armed Forces with the police in the control of these crimes, which have undeniable international tentacles. However, the response from the court was negative.
This court is also in charge of examining and giving its ruling on a petition of protection requested by two businesspeople involved in the case of embezzlement involving former President Correa for which he was sentenced to prison. If this petition is accepted by the Court, it could open the door to a return by Correa. Needless to say, the Correistas and corrupt judges are working hard to obtain such a ruling.
Amidst this convoluted political environment, the Ministry of Finance submitted the General Government budget proposal for 2023, with an overall deficit of $2630 million based on GDP growth of 3.1% for next year, oil production of 189 million barrels at an export price of $64.8, a y/y increase in taxes of $1,023 million, and the sale of assets for around $1.1 million. On the expenditure side the government expects $18b in current expenditure ($1.9b higher than the forecast for this year) and $6.2b in capital expenditures ($350m less than the forecast for this year).
The above-described gloomy political panorama was temporarily erased by the overjoy brought by the performance of the Ecuadorian soccer team, which started the World Cup tournament with a brilliant triumph that leaves us all of us hoping for more.
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