Solid Q1 growth, but brace for an ugly ride ahead

TURKEY - Report 29 May 2020 by Murat Ucer

Turkish economy grew by 4.5%, y/y, and 0.6%, q/q, in the first quarter of this year (Graph 1), which is somewhat weaker than expectations. More importantly, however, these figures reflect the COVID-19 shock only partially, with the lockdowns affecting at most one-sixth of the quarter. The second quarter will be a different matter altogether, in which we will see a very steep contraction, particularly in sequential (q/q) terms (data due on August 31st).

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