South Africa’s political future and the ANC’s leadership challenges

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 04 Feb 2022 by Iraj Abedian

The greatest threat facing South Africa and its future, that is, besides the obvious current threat of the Covid-19 pandemic facing the entire world, is poor governance and leadership misfit. The majority of South Africa’s population that had lived under Apartheid’s atrocious conditions suddenly had hopes for a better life following the peaceful democratic transition in 1994. The African National Congress (ANC)-led government has indeed been responsible for much progress and the uplifting of many since coming into power over 27 years ago. Nonetheless, corruption and political infighting (which has led to fractures within the governing ANC) have wreaked havoc on the South African nation and its economy, diminishing its potential and robbing many of a better livelihood.

Consequently, the ANC as a party is in a state of crisis as it has been losing substantial electoral support over the past years: support for the party came in below 60% for the first time in the 2019 general elections and below 50% in last year’s local government elections. In short, the ANC’s future is looking bleak and increasingly unpredictable.

Voters have become increasingly disillusioned by the ANC owing to corruption and poor governance, while voter apathy has generally been on the rise. Moreover, one of the major causes of the ANC’s dwindling voter support has been ascribed to the steady increase in the proportion of the “born-free” voters, i.e., voters born after (or not long before) South Africa’s first democratic elections of 1994. This group of voters is not overly attached to ANC’s past as the country’s party of liberation, but is rather focused on what each party means for their future. All in all, the ANC is increasingly seen as a political party consumed with self-interest while at the same time having no clear vision of its role or that of the country’s future. In this report, we discuss two possible scenarios for the party's future.

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