South Africa’s Q3 GDP surprises on the downside, contracting amid expectations of low but positive growth

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 03 Dec 2019 by Iraj Abedian

The previous quarterly GDP data by Stats SA revealed that South Africa had avoided a second consecutive H1 technical recession, as real GDP growth recovered by 3.2% q/q (upwardly adjusted from 3.1%) in the second quarter, from a contraction of 3.1% q/q during the first quarter of 2019. However, today’s figures show that real GDP growth declined by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2019, i.e., GDP has so far contracted in two out of the three quarters of 2019. What’s more, the magnitude of the second quarter increase (3.2%) can largely be attributed to a base effect (i.e., from -3.1%).

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