Stagflation ain’t over yet
The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMACEC) showed relatively favorable results in December. But given the adverse outlook for 2023, negative 12-month variations will continue in coming months. At the sectorial level, it is worth differentiating between cases where there were additional advances (as in services) and those where a rebound from the previous month’s decline prevailed (as in industry). The average annual growth of the IMACEC in 2022 was 2.7%, and 3.8% if we exclude the mining sector.
Household consumption adjustment persists. Retail sales are still significantly lower than after the pension fund withdrawals and other pandemic-related government transfers. In December, both housing credit and consumption credit in real terms continued to stagnate. The value of imports of consumer goods continued to deteriorate rapidly. The trend of industrial production throughout 2022 was one of lower production, falling below pre-pandemic levels. January's commercial credit showed signs of increasingly weak investment. In January, business confidence showed a slight improvement, but pessimism persists.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report