Statistics suggest economy keeps growing in 7M26 fast enough, albeit growth moderates

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Aug 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Recent economic and financial data show that Kazakhstan’s economy is still performing fairly well, though perhaps falling a bit short of expectations, with GDP in the first half of 2026 up 4.1% year-on-year and the short-term indicator - a monthly measure of activity across six key sectors - rising by 4.3%. The slower growth earlier in the year was largely due to oil export disruptions in the first quarter. Lately, economic activity has rebounded, and as a result the economy is no longer as overheated as it was in 2025. Still, some puzzling statistics leave questions about short-term trends and whether growth will pick up later this year or slow down instead.Budget execution statistics also show that economic growth has slowed, and it seems unlikely the government can boost the economy by increasing budget spending as it has in recent years. So far, republican budget expenditures remain unchanged at KZT26.3 trln, while local spending has only modestly increased - from the initially approved KZT15.6 trln to KZT16.8 trln, a rise of less than 10%. Overall, total expenditures across all levels have seen only moderate growth. In the next few days, we plan to provide a more detailed analysis of the current economic situation and short-term trends, as the Bureau of National Statistics just finished publishing key July data today, alongside the Ministry of Finance’s publication of the 7M26 consolidated budget execution report.Financial data shows that in 7M26, total revenues of the consolidated budget reached 51.0% of the annual plan, with tax revenues making up 50.4% of that. By this period, authorities had already collected 93.4% of non-tax revenues. Unlike previous years, t...