Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Dec 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

LULA 4: A SAMPLE OF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE

What was expected to be a calm year-end came to an abrupt halt on Friday, December 5, with a clear sample of the uncertainty and risk that will accompany us into 2026. Equities were 4.31% down, reversing the previous mood of euphoria — or “overbought” sentiment — and the real weakened 2.31%, closing at R$5.43/US$. The surprise announcement that Bolsonaro would support his son Flávio, the “01”, cracked the idyllic scenario suggested both by the orderly environment surrounding Bolsonaro’s arrest and by the supposedly settled agreement to delay candidate definitions “until after Carnival.”

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