Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
The greater supply of doses has allowed acceleration of the vaccination campaign, increasing the number of persons receiving the first dose to 105 million, or 49.8% of the population, while 19.7% are fully immunized. The number of deaths has been steadily declining: the 7-day moving average of daily deaths peaked at 3,124 on April 12th and stood at 991 on July 31st, the lowest since January. On the bleak side, Covid-19 has now claimed 555 thousand lives. The restrictions on the functioning of commerce and services are being relaxed or have ended in various states, but the information about the heightened contagion of the Delta variant bodes ill, in Brazil and the world. Faced with the decline of his approval ratings and the fear of what else might be discovered by the Covid Congressional Investigating Committee (CPI), Bolsonaro has delivered the crown jewels to the Centrão, appointing the notorious Senator Ciro Nogueira to the powerful position of presidential chief of staff. Only time will tell if that shielding maneuver enables him to weather the squalls and storms expected in the coming months. The favorable wind from the international economy has lately been a bit inconsistent, reflecting the fear of deceleration of the global economy because of the Delta variant and the effects of the rising antagonism between the United States and China. Inflationary pressures are spreading around the world, bringing anxiety about the moment when central banks will change their stance. In Brazil, rising inflation and stubbornly high unemployment are falling most heavily on the poorest people, who are vulnerable because of the dearth of public policies to alleviate their suffering.
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