Synthesis of the Brazilian economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 11 Feb 2019 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The prolonged hospitalization of President Bolsonaro, without taking a formal leave of office, has paralyzed part of the government, accentuating internal conflicts. The latest information indicates he will be released in the next few days, after which his actions and governing style will tend to become clearer, allowing a better evaluation about the chances of winning approval of the various reforms. The most recent economic data indicate that growth this year will be weaker than previously expected, partly due to the global economic slowdown, especially of important trading partners like Argentina, and partly because of uncertainty over the real chances of congressional approval of the reforms necessary to assure government solvency. Without them, the sovereign risk will remain high, deterring investments, which are the main source to spur the country’s growth.

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