Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
The evolution of the pandemic continues largely to dictate the country’s economic and political situation. The new upsurge of contagion and rising death rate, partly due to mutations of the coronavirus and partly because of the absence of a national plan to deal with the pandemic, has brought the risk of exhausting hospital capacity, as has indeed occurred in Manaus. Relief will only come with sufficient vaccination to achieve herd immunity, a very slow process. Against the backdrop of the health emergency combined with signs of economic deceleration and sinking popularity, the government will likely respond with further income transfers to more vulnerable people. The delicacy of the fiscal situation requires a renewed emergency benefit program to be more realistic and responsible from the fiscal standpoint than was the Emergency Relief program that ended in December.
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