Tax revenues behind the overly ambitious plan as economic growth moderated

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 16 Oct 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Recently released economic and budget execution data show that growth remains steady, though slower than in 2025. The Bureau of National Statistics reports that the short-term indicator - a monthly measure of activity across industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and communications - rose 4.8% y-o-y in 9M26, similar to previous periods since January. Last year, it was over 9.0%, which was clearly overheated. After the oil export slump in 1Q26 slowed the indicator to about 2.5%, the economy now seems on track for 4.8% to possibly 5.0% growth as 4Q26 budget spending increases. As usual, the government revised expenditures upward, adding to local budget KZT1.3 trln while keeping republican budget spending unchanged this time. Overall, in 9M26, about KZT2.7 trln in spending was delayed, suggesting a likely boost in consumer demand for the rest of the year.On the revenue side, both local and republican budgets fell short of the plan, with total republican budget revenues at 72.2% in 9M26, despite over 90% utilization of budgeted transfers from the National Fund. Tax revenues benefited from high oil prices and solid profits of oil exporters, along with mineral resource taxes linked to the oil price. However, VAT collection was unimpressive, with only 59.1% of the yearly plan gathered in 9M26. VAT on locally produced goods and services was even weaker, reaching just 53.0% of the planned amount. The plan, however, itself seemed unrealistic and overly ambitious.Local budget statistics show other notable trends, such as corporate profit tax payments amounting to only 56.6% of the annual plan in 9M26. This may suggest that while economic growth remains strong...