Tepid GDP growth for South Africa in 2018

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Mar 2019 by Iraj Abedian

​Despite South Africa’s exiting a technical recession in the third quarter of 2018 when GDP recorded (an upwardly revised) 2.6% q/q growth rate (previously 2.2%), the country’s economic growth remains anemic and still insufficient to make a meaningful dent on unemployment, poverty and inequality. In the last quarter of 2018, seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP increased by 1.4%, slightly slower growth than that noted in the third quarter of 2018 (but Q3 growth was coming from a very low base). Additionally, for the year 2018, real GDP increased by 0.8%, down from 1.4% noted in 2017. This was exactly in line with our 2018 growth forecast (Quarterly Review, January 25, 2019). Furthermore, growth for 2018 was expected to come in slightly lower than recorded on the back of slower recovery in employment and investment, along with the less supportive global trade environment.

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