The ball is in Flávio Bolsonaro's court

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

Flávio Bolsonaro is the frontrunner for the Presidency and, if elected, should count on support in Congress to pass important reforms. The market reacted well to the result, but sustaining this optimism depends on the new government taking advantage of the set of proposals already debated by civil society to put the economy on a path of sustainable growth. Fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition to avoid a crisis, but not sufficient for growth, which will also require productivity gains. The risk is that the changes will be more limited or slower than desirable, since little is yet known about the concrete measures that will be adopted. This time, there is no “Ipiranga gas station” - Paulo Guedes – with a previously designed project, and therefore, the quality of the technical team and the receptiveness to ideas coming from outside the government will be decisive for its performance.

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