The base rate remains unchanged, the tenge strengthens more

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 28 Apr 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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On April 24, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 18% despite inflation decelerating in March. It fell y-o-y to 11.0% and m-o-m to 0.6% (from 11.7% and 1.7% in February). Commenting on the decision, the NBK Chairman praised the consistency of monetary policy and acknowledged that inflation also decelerated due to other factors, such as a moratorium on indexation of regulated tariffs, mandatory FX sales by the exporters, soaring oil prices, capital inflows as government bonds started looking increasingly attractive in such an environment, and helped to appreciate the tenge further. Even though he didn’t mention that government spending was well behind the plan and also helped to contain inflation, the Chairman acknowledged future risks and announced the decision.In such a volatile environment, the NBK’s choice to keep the base rate high has likely helped prevent the economy from overheating, as household lending has slowed in recent months. In 1Q26, average month-on-month household credit growth was under 0.4% and well below inflation, compared to about 1.1% m-o-m in 4Q25. In 2Q25 and 3Q25, monthly averages grew around 2.0% m-o-m, well above inflation. The excessively strong tenge (459.73 against the dollar at the time of writing) has also helped bring inflation down and lower import prices. It seems consumer credit growth will stay modest for the foreseeable future, at least while the base rate remains elevated. A natural slowdown in economic growth could actually be a healthy development.Meanwhile, the Bureau of National Statistics just released annual figures for some measures of income inequality in 2025, and the numbers looked ...