The change in the external picture

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Jan 2019 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The benign picture of “synchronized growth” of the mature and emerging economies is a thing of the past. At present, the prevailing pattern is deceleration of global growth, affecting developed countries like those in Europe as well as developing nations like China. One of the consequences is less demand for Brazilian exports, both due to the slower international GDP growth and its effects on commodity prices. The intensification of Brazil’s cyclical recovery requires higher aggregate demand, and in light of the behavior of the global economy, this crucially depends on expansion of gross fixed capital formation, which in turn depends on restoring confidence, produced by a robust fiscal consolidation.

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