The conundrum of the Constitutional Assembly
On November 16, Ecuadorians will return to the polls to decide on four questions proposed by President Noboa, of which the most important is the convocation of a Constitutional Assembly.
The need to make changes to unviable articles of the current constitution, which was approved under the anti-democratic power of President Correa, is clear and urgent. However, there is also the danger that the Correistas will seize at least 50% of the votes in this assembly, as they did for the legislature. Since any proposal will need at least two thirds of the votes to be approved, they would need only a few more votes from their traditional allies to torpedo any effort by the official group.
The other three questions in the referendum refer to the operation of casinos in five-star hotels, the installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador, and the elimination of public financing of political parties and a reduction in the number of legislators. President Noboa initially sent seven questions for the referendum, but the Constitutional Court approved only four of them.
The debate on the Constitutional Assembly has been sidestepped by over a month of public protests against the elimination of the subsidy of diesel. The protests have been led by CONAIE and mostly centered in the province of Imbabura, where illegal mining has strong influence and links to organized crime. The government and some CONAIE leaders signed an agreement to end the protests last Thursday, but the pact was not backed by commoners who threatened to apply “Indian justice” to the involved leaders. Thus, there is no sign of an easy or prompt end to this conflict.
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