The current account deficit widened in 4Q24, and January tax collection is likely to be poor
KAZAKHSTAN
- In Brief
05 Feb 2025
by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the current account deficit widened to $2.9 bln in 4Q24 (versus $0.3 trln in 3Q24) and reached $4.4 bln in 2024. In 4Q24, exports decreased by about $1.2 bln compared to 3Q24, while imports rose by $0.9 bln. Lower oil prices and limited volumes of exports were behind this change on the exports side, while a budgetary spending spree at the end of the year combined with rapidly growing consumer credits inflated imports. It looks as though in 1Q25, the current account deficit will remain wide as consumer demand seemingly remains strong and inflationary. The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the m-o-m inflation reached 1.1% (versus 0.9% in December), while the y-o-y inflation accelerated to 8.9% (from 8.6% in December). The Ministry of Finance reported about the monthly cash flow of the National Fund, and the numbers didn’t look rosy. In KZT terms, the fund’s assets decreased in January from KZT33.1 trln to KZT32.7 trln, as the revenue flow didn’t look impressive. Total revenues amounted to KZT148 bln, while spending (mainly transfers to the budget) reached KZT551 bln. Overall, the start of this year may not look too impressive from the macroeconomic point of view.
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