The deficit and the debt

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Jan 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The Minister of Finance, seeking to defend his legacy (an arduous task, I acknowledge), stated in an interview that “public debt is increasing because of high interest rates, not because of the deficit”. This is not true, as we will show in this Report. The primary deficits recorded in 2023, 2024 and in the January–September 2025 period implied an increase in debt of at least 3.3% of GDP, probably more.

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