The economy steadily recovers as historical statistical data consistently revised up

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 01 Apr 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

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Rosstat reported that Russia’s aggregate output in the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, which represent nearly two-thirds of GDP) was down by 2.3% y-o-y. This result looks good given the high base effect in February 2020 due to a leap year's additional day. Rosstat also revised the January number slightly up, so that in 2M21 output of the five basic sectors was down by a mere 1.8% y-o-y. In March y-o-y growth will be either flat or slightly positive so that the 1Q21 y-o-y contraction is expected to be around 1.0% or only slightly more. Since April Russia’s y-o-y growth numbers will look strongly positive.The reported statistics didn’t alter GKEM Analytica’s 2021 GDP growth forecast at 3.2%. However, an outlook became more positive with potential upward revisions. Late in the evening, Rosstat will publish revised quarterly GDP numbers for the period from 2018. Note that after the statistical agency upgraded annual 2018 and 2019 GDP growth numbers at the end-2020, quarterly statistics remained untouched and didn’t match the revised annual data. Once the updated quarterly GDP numbers are available, it will be possible to have a more consistent view of Russia’s growth prospects.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin