The fiscal outlook improves as Gulf states show expenditure constraint in H1 and oil revenue trends up

GULF COUNTRIES - Forecast 01 Sep 2021 by Justin Alexander

* H1 fiscal balances ranged from a -7.8% of GDP deficit for Oman to a 1.3% surplus for Qatar.
* Spending is down across all four states that have reported H1 fiscal data.
* We see Qatar’s surplus expanding to 2.2% of GDP for 2021 as a whole.
* We forecast a Saudi deficit of -0.7% of GDP, more optimistic than most.
* We see significant improvements compared with 2020 for Oman, at -5.6% of GDP, and Bahrain at -6.1%.
* Some of the states have quite a bit of government discretion in revenue recognition that contributes to uncertainty in these forecasts.

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