The fork in the road

TURKEY - Report 18 May 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

With PKK declaring an end to the armed struggle, Turkey’s half century-long nightmare of violent separatism is finally over. Now is the time to build on this success to draft a new constitution, preferably ratified in parliament to address the grievance of Kurds.

Yet, exactly how Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli intend to go about this process is a mystery. The politics author constructs three scenarios, the bad one involving peace with Kurds coupled with lethal persecution of CHP and a good-case scenario where CHP will be incentivized to cooperate on the said constitution.

There is also a hybrid third scenario, which will be OK for market sentiment. Always eager to go on a limb in making predictions about the future, the politics author can’t guess which road Erdogan-Bahceli will travel because there are signs supporting both hypotheses. The politics essay ends with a few landmarks that will be signaling the path chosen by Erdogan-Bahceli.

Now read on...

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