The Frustrated Bet on Fast Return to Growth

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Nov 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The most recent data on economic activity indicate GDP contracted again in the third quarter. Due to the shrinkage of world trade and weak commodity prices, there is no hope for exports to act as a force to drive recovery. Nor can this be expected from household consumption, which continues being discouraged by the drop in the occupied population and wages along with contraction of new credit concessions, which is a natural reaction of banks to the high default risk. The need for fiscal adjustment will also prevent countercyclical measures from the government, leaving fixed capital investments as the only impulse to growth.

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