The Future Hangs on Budget Revision

UKRAINE - Forecast 13 Jan 2015 by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Summary Though the year has begun, it’s still hard to envision how the next 12 months will unfold. Russian aggression is still on the agenda, but the core troublemaker right now is Ukraine’s 2015 budget. Disregarding the need to comply with the IMF austerity measures, the Ukrainian authorities approved a very loose budget, which leaves virtually zero chance for the country to remain solvent. In particular, the authorities are overoptimistic about tax revenue growth (+26% y/y), plan to rely heavily on hryvnia printing (the budget outlined more than UAH 200 billion in support from t...

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