The government reveals its macroeconomic projections and medium-term budget figures

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 26 Aug 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

---

The Kazakh government has announced the approval of the medium-term macroeconomic forecast and key budget figures. GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, with average annual growth from 2026-2028 projected at 5.3%, indicating a slight slowdown after 2026. These figures seem reasonable given the economy's likely faster growth this year and expected deceleration next year. The NBK’s recent consensus forecast predicts slightly lower growth of 4.7% in 2026, marginally up from the previous forecast of 4.6%. It also anticipates 5.2% GDP growth this year alongside 11.3% inflation, higher than the 11.0% previously expected. Inflation is projected to drop to 9.5% next year, aligning with government estimates of below 10.0%. Growth is expected to be driven by construction and transportation, with 11.0% and 10.1% growth next year, respectively. Manufacturing is forecast to grow by 6.2% next year, accelerating to 6.6% in 2026, while trade is projected to grow by 6.7% in 2026. Key budget figures reveal a republican budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP next year, decreasing to 0.9% in 2028, aiming for a balanced budget in subsequent years. The government plans to significantly reduce intra-budgetary transfers, as local budget revenues are steadily growing with the fast-growing economy and high inflation. Further analysis of the 2026-2028 budget figures will follow as more details emerge.