The Indications from the Financial Stability Report

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Sep 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

​There are various signs that economic activity has bottomed out between the second and third quarters, but there are no signs that recovery will be brisk. The Central Bank’s Financial Stability Report for the first half of the year offers new evidence that the rebound will be slow. Households and firms have high debt levels, which with the deepening of the recession caused rising rates of default and debt renegotiation, restricting the demand for credit. The consequence is that unlike the situation between 2004 and 2011, no impulse to economic activity can be expected from expansion of credit.

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