The Indications from the Latest GDP Data

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Mar 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Caio Carbone and Marcelo Gazzano

To understand what lies ahead, we need reliable information about what has happened. The announcement that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 fell by 1.4% in relation to the third (an annualized rate of 5.7%) reveals that the economy contracted by 3.8% last year. This also means seven consecutive quarters of decline, putting the current recession, in terms of duration, only behind those in 1981 (9 quarters) and 1989 (11 quarters). But it has not yet run its course, and as can be seen in the projection in Graph 1, it will be one of the deepest of the past 35 years.

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