Labor market improvement hides a lower participation rate, and a new name with previous experience enters the political arena.
The final GDP results for 2021 will be published soon. We expect a growth rate between 13% and 15%, the latter hinted by Minister Alexander in his February interview with the daily newspaper La Estrella. If confirmed by INEC, the economy will be on a path to recovery from the 18% drop of 2020.
These good numbers for 2021 translated into an improvement in the labor market, as expected. The unemployment rate in 2021, according to the mid-year survey, was 11.3% lower than the 18.5% in 2021. But these results must be analyzed closely. The participation rate in 2021 (60%) was lower than in 2019 (67%) and 2020 (63%). The reasons are: the reduction in participation by women (47%), which is now at its lowest since 2011 (46%); the cyclical effect of the perception of the lack of job opportunities by both men and women; and the extension of the electronic voucher for non-participants in the labor market (258,696 individuals).
According to insiders, Rubén Blades, a famous singer-songwriter, and Ricardo Lombana, the former independent presidential candidate who obtained 18.8% of the votes in 2019, are not on a path to political convergence so far. Apart from the usual anti-corruption/better government/greater public sector efficiency rhetoric, they do not seem like an odd couple: Blades looks to the left and Lombana to the right. But the fact is that Blades alone or paired with Lombana might change the political scenario in the next few years.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report