The Lula effect and the 2022 election
The decision by Minister Edson Fachin, of the Federal Supreme Court, which places Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential race, obviously changes the scenario.
Despite the disorganization on the left, Lula has a strong potential to unite political forces, including those to his right on the political spectrum. Parties such as the PCdoB and the PSOL, despite the fact that they have the governor of Maranhão, Flávio Dino, and Guilherme Boulos, respectively, as potential candidates, would tend to support Lula if the former president were to run for the Planalto Palace in 2022. The PDT, on the other hand, at least for now, will keep its focus on Ciro Gomes for 2022. However, with Lula in the race, Ciro will tend to lose strength.
Today there is no candidate that can galvanize anti-bolsonarista sentiment. But Lula, despite his rejection in the national political center, has the potential to play this part.
Generally, the political center – which is seeking a viable candidate – will have to decide what position to take. The threat is that the center’s political capital could erode as a consequence of the Bolsonaro and Lula movements. In addition to lacking a candidate and a narrative, the center is fragmented. Furthermore, parties such as the PP, PL, PTB and part of the DEM, for example, will tend to side with Bolsonaro if he maintains the approval ratings he has today.
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