The mainstream view on Indian growth is shifting

INDIA - In Brief 08 Sep 2017 by Ajay Shah

For a sustained period, Ila Patnaik and I have argued that India got into a downturn in 2011 and has not yet come out of it. This was inconsistent with the mainstream discourse. The conventional view of financial firm economists was that growth had crashed with the 2013 currency defense but recovered after the change of government in 2014. The mood is shifting. The official GDP data (which we consider untrustworthy) has shown a decline in growth in 2016. Our discovery of the crisis in earnings growth is becoming more widely known. As an example of the shift in the tone of the mainstream conversation, consider T. N. Ninan. He is a former editor of the Business Standard, is very plugged in, and reflects the zeitgeist. In tomorrow's Business Standard, he has this article -- argues that India has been in a growth crisis since 2011. This suggests that our understanding is now going mainstream.

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