Mulino’s “mining deadline” is near, but Cobre Panamá’s re-opening schedule is uncertain. Strong activity data support a 4.5% growth forecast for 2026

PANAMA - Forecast 30 Jun 2026 by Marco Fernandez and Jhonatan Astudillo

"D-Day" is approaching for the solution of the "Minera Panama Case": our assessment is that on July 1, the date President Mulino had promised to present the roadmap for the reopening of the copper mine, he may propose general ideas rather than specific plans. The same day, the new Directorate of the Legislative Assembly will be elected. The result will determine the government’s ability to advance its initiatives over the next twelve months. The current vote counts point to Ms. Castañeda, who has served as a lawyer for former President Martinelli, as the candidate most likely to be elected president of the Legislative Assembly’s Directorate, supported by RM-CD and a small number of votes from Vamos, with a possible broader amnesty proposal adding political sensitivity. Activity data remains solid. Real GDP expanded by 4.8% in Q1, and the IMAE increased by 6% in May, supported by construction, tourism, and Canal-related activity. This stronger-than-expected performance, together with a reassessment of the timing of key growth drivers, has led us to raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.0% to 4.5%.

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