The mountain in labor
At the end of November, former President Rafael Correa threatened Moreno and his fellow “traitor supporters” that he would return to Ecuador and expel them from the presidency and the membership of Alianza Pais, respectively. He also promised Ecuadorians he would stop the referendum on grounds of unconstitutionality.
But just like what happened in the Aesop’s fable, all the threats and expectations from Correistas of apocalypse for Moreno put the party “into labor”, but in the end it just gave birth to a little mouse.
Correa arrived at the end of November, in a private flight from Bogota, at 3 o’clock in the morning. The press gave it such little coverage that it did not even make the front page. Correa's dreams of expelling Moreno from Alianza Pais were cleverly blocked by Moreno’s lawyers and were not supported by the once-loyal electoral court - the same court that accepted the questions sent by Moreno for the referendum. Thus, it will take place next February 2018, and might end Correa’s dream of a new presidential term. His departure – in which he showed a sad and bitter face – was as anodyne as his arrival.
Although Moreno emerged triumphant from this battle, he has not been free of trouble, either. Last week, social media revealed a recording from Eduardo Mangas, Secretary of Planning and a close collaborator of Moreno, in which he declared that Moreno’s approach through dialogue is just a trick to keep people happy, but that nothing will change (from the past administration) in politics or in the conduct of economic policy. He also declared that the cases of corruption that have scandalized the country over the last three months and that put Vice President Jorge Glass in jail were well known both by Moreno and the previous government.
Mangas, a former minister of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and the husband of Moreno's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Maria Fernanda Espinosa, resigned two days ago, but the damage has been done, and the response from Moreno has been quite mild given the seriousness of the revelations.
In the midst of these events, President Moreno sent the “Bill for Economic Recovery” to the Assembly for approval. The bill contains corporate and individual tax reforms, import tariffs, and important changes in the management of electronic money, as well as the management of private credit information.
Both the original bill and the changes introduced by the legislators have come in for deservedly harsh criticism from the domestic productive, banking and labor sectors as well as from John Melle, US representative for the Western Hemisphere. The president will be sending a partial (and disappointing) veto of those changes.
The contradictory signals sent by Moreno regarding political and economic management are keeping Ecuadorians puzzled and doubtful. Some hope that after the referendum, provided a successful outcome, a more clear and stronger economic reform will be undertaken. We do not share those hopes. We believe that the lack of structure and consistency in economic management goes beyond the need to focus and respond to a very hectic political environment.
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