The MPC waits, but November now carries a hike decision, a vacant board and a Sejm vote on the governor

POLAND - In Brief 13 Oct 2026 by Jan Hagemejer
No rates change in October The MPC held the reference rate at 3.75% on October 7 (lombard 4.25%, deposit 3.25%), as we expected. At the delayed press conference on October 8 Glapinski said a November hike "isn't shaping up for now" but he does not rule it out, and that the November projection (meeting on 3 to 4 November) will decide. He sees no second-round effects yet, and listed five upside risks: demand (Q2 GDP almost 4% y/y), a German recovery, farm commodity prices, a 7.1% of GDP budget deficit and producer prices. He also said it is unclear whether the fuel tax relief will be extended, which complicates forecasting. The governor and the State Tribunal On Friday October 9 the Constitutional Accountability Committee closed over two years of work and adopted a report recommending that Glapiński face the State Tribunal on eight charges, among them indirect financing of the deficit through the 2020 to 2021 bond purchases (at least PLN 144bn), FX interventions, politically motivated rate cuts (Glapinski-led MPC lowered the interest rates just before the 2023 parliamentary elections, which was followed by a hike in inflation), obstructing access to documents and breaching political neutrality. The committee vote was 11 to 8 with 2 abstentions, and PiS and Rozwój Plus filed minority motions. The report went to the Sejm Speaker (Marszałek Sejmu). The Sejm cannot vote until 21 days after all MPs receive it. While this could happen in November, it may also be possible that the government will first move against Constitutional Tribunal president Święczkowski (PIS nominee). In any case, Prime Minister Donald Tusk will decide on the timing A plenary vote needs an absolute majo...

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